Predicting Conversion from CIS to CDMS

Conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) can be predicted from oglioclonal bands (OCBs), MRI lesion load, and age at CIS, according to a multicenter study of 1,047 CIS cases.

Investigators followed subjects for an average of 4.3 years, during which time 623 CIS cases converted to CDMS. Predictors associated with conversion included:

• OCB (HR, 2.18)

• 2 to 9 T2 lesions compared to 1 or less lesions (HR, 1.97)

• more than 9 lesions (HR, 2.74)

• age at CIS (HR per year inversely increase, 0.98)

Lower serum vitamin D levels were associated with CDMS in univariable analysis, but not in the multivariable model.

Citation: Ciccarelli O, Toosy AT. Conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to multiple sclerosis: A large multicentre study. Mult Scler. 2015;21(8):967-968. doi: 10.1177/1352458515588583.